Can Timor-Leste hold it together for 2012?
It's been a rough ride for Timor-Leste: 450 years of neglect under Portuguese colonialists, 24 years of systematic abuse under the Indonesian military, two-and-a-half years of experimentation under a UN transitional government and now nine rocky years as Southeast Asia's newest nation. With parliamentary and presidential elections slated for 2012, Southeast Asia's youngest democracy is about to be put to the test once more.
Since formal independence in 2002, progress in Timor-Leste has been dogged by political violence and divisions among elites and at the grassroots level. In February 2008 Alfredo Reinado and a group of rebel soldiers ambushed Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and President Jose Ramos-Horta, shooting the latter twice in the stomach. Capital city Dili went into lockdown mode, but the rebels eventually surrendered in April. Despite the trouble, the nation's institutions were able to keep the country together and avoid more violence, signalling the first signs of stability.
Today, in 2011, democracy in Timor-Leste has a lot going for it:
The country has money
Were it not for oil wealth – about $7.4 billion banked at the moment – Timor-Leste would be seriously lacking in capital needed for nationbuilding and statebuilding. As it is, offshore oil and gas reserves give Timor-Leste an opportunity to invest in its own future. Mechanisms were quickly put in place so that Timor-Leste would not overspend its oil wealth and fall victim to the “resource curse” that has plagued other developing countries.
Village elections went by without a major hitch
Past elections have been marred by violence and intimidation, but the village elections of 2009 passed by without any major incidents, plus there was nearly 70% voter turnout. Ramos-Horta cited the elections as a sign of “people's maturity”.
It's relatively peaceful now
Timor-Leste is currently enjoying its longest period of peace — defined as the absence of direct violence — since independence and finally appears to have broken the two-year cycle of descending back into violence. Poverty is decreasing, health indicators have shown vast improvements and the government has been supporting community-level reconciliation programmes to get people talking about the past and airing their grievances. However, if we factor in indirect violence, the argument becomes somewhat more complex. But let's save that for another day.
There are more jobs – but still not enough
Perhaps the biggest problem has been finding jobs for a young population with high expectations. The government has previously struggled to get people working, but the International Labour Organization (ILO) has been helping build capacity with an emphasis on local ownership so that when ILO leaves, programmes won't simply collapse and the government will be able to continue working with training providers and employers.
Looking forward to 2012
As far as consolidating democracy goes, 2012 will be a critical year for Timor-Leste. It's vital that contestation for state power remains within the confines of the political arena and this will require the elites to ditch dubious habits inherited from the Indonesian era. If Timor-Leste can play by the rules, the half-island nation stands a good chance of taking big steps towards becoming Southeast Asia's most democratic nation, but there is still a long way to go.
