This post follows on from yesterday's post covering the election results as they broke. Note that these figures are not final. There are what appear to be more-up-to-date figures on the L'ao Hamutuk website, but the outcome is still the same in terms of seats/threshold.
UDT: 5,314 (1.12%)
PR: 4,229 (0.89%)
PDN: 9,356 (1.98%)
AD: 2,601 (0.55%)
PUN: 3,156 (0.67%)
PD: 48,581 (10.26%)
PTD: 2,539 (0.54%)
PSD: 10,158 (2.15%)
Frente Modanca: 14,648 (3.09%)
Khunto: 13,998 (2.96%)
CNRT: 172,831 (36.52%)
FRETILIN: 140,786 (29.74%)
PDP: 1,992 (0.42%)
Bloku Proklamador: 3,125 (0.66%)
ASDT: 8,487 (1.79%)
PST: 11,379 (2.4%)
PDC: 887 (0.19%)
PDL: 2,222 (0.47)
APMT: 5,968 (1.26%)
UNDERTIM: 7,042 (1.49%)
PLPA – PDRT: 4,012 (0.85%)
- Four parties made it past the 3% threshold to be eligible for seats compared to seven in 2007. They are CNRT, FRETILIN, PD and Frente Modanca. Khunto narrowly missed out after being poised to get there (although this could change depending on the final results).
- Fernanda Borges will no longer be a member of parliament after her National Union Party bombed getting 0.67% compared to 4.55% in 2007 (lost support from the church?).
- It looks like it will be about 30 seats for CNRT, 25 for FRETILIN, eight for PD and two for Frente Modanca.
- CNRT will now likely form another coalition government (as it stands, they'd win 30 seats, three shy of enough to govern alone).
- The CNRT-PD(-Frente) coalition won't be a huge step away from the past five years, except for the ASDT-PSD not being a part of it this time.
- Remember that Frente Modanca is a breakaway from FRETILIN, but the people who formed it backed Gusmao at the last election and their leader, José Luís Guterres, went on to be deputy prime minister. Until last year they had not officially broken from FRETILIN and formed their own party.
- Voter turnout was about 75% (74.78% to be exact based on above figures).
- FRETILIN's popularity is about the same as in 2007 when they got 29.02% of the vote. CNRT has improved more than 10 percentage points to win this time round.
- The parties Ramos-Horta campaigned for (PD and ASDT) did worse in this election than the last one.
- We're going to have five more years of a Gusmao-led coalition government, which means five years of big spending on infrastructure projects and suchlike.
- Reports out of Dili suggest the coalition could be ready to roll very soon.
- As Cillian Nolan from ICG notes: Looks like 20% of the Timor vote went to parties that won't get seats in parliament bc they failed to beat 3% threshold.